Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
